Editorial: Oscars Hype, Analysis, and Predictions!

NOTE: The following article is an editorial. It doesn’t reflect the views of TMT, it’s staff, it’s editors, or anyone but the author, Eric Sopko

I don’t know about you, but I love the Oscars! I always look at the nominees announcement the day it is made, I always try and watch all the Best Picture nominees so I can pick who I think should win, and I throw a major party for the event itself, full of any and all snacks you can think of. It’s like having a second Super Bowl for me!

The Oscars get a lot of hate for their snubbing and perceived snootiness on what makes a film Best Picture worthy. Basically, that it is an elitist event. While this is true to a degree, I think the Oscars are a decent gage of quality. Yes, they don’t always get the best film of the year right and fail to recognize certain genres and artists, but they rarely nominate “bad” films. What I like most about the Oscars is not necessarily the award, but the fact it brings films I normally would have no idea exist into my radar.

That said, I have been mad about plenty of Oscar decisions. I was mad The Reader got the nomination for Best Picture over The Dark Knight, Wall E, and Doubt. I threw a fit when Sweeny Todd got snubbed for Best Picture and Tim Burton was once again denied a Best Director nomination. I also hate the make-up Oscars that happen, like with Million Dollar Baby winning in part due to Mystic River losing Best Picture because the academy was busy giving Lord of the Rings all the Oscars in order to make-up for denying the series Oscars past technical awards in the previous years. This is on top of their continued refusal to award Scorsese a Best Director Oscar, making an entire category for animated films in order to justify looking down on animated films as lesser films, and their efforts to not give people proper time to give an acceptance speech. Despite all this, I love the show! But, I recognize the faults with the system, but is this system really any worse than the BCS in college football?

Now let’s focus on the Oscars this year. The biggest change to the format is the change from 5 Best Picture nominees to 10 Best Picture nominees. While this gives more chances for bubble films to get nominated, this is not a change I back. There is a mentality that more is better in the US. While adding more seemingly gives you more of what you love, it also waters down competition. Let me put it this way, the NFL grew from 8 teams way back in the day to the 32 teams they have now. While that means more games, that also means that players that wouldn’t make teams when there is only 8 teams will now make teams. So the competition is now watered down. The same applies to the Oscars. What does a Best Picture nomination mean when you were nominated when there were 10 nominees as opposed to 5? Is it the same accomplishment? Say Iron Man 2 gets nominated for Best Picture at next year’s Oscars. Is that breaking a genre barrier like The Dark Knight getting nominated would have been with only 5 nominees? I don’t think so. I think that makes the nomination less special. Also note how only the Best Picture field got expanded. No other category did. This is completely to cater to those that were mad The Reader got in over Wall E and The Dark Knight. Not to mention 2009 was a weak year for films. Maybe 10 nominees in 2009 would have been a monster list, but this year, a lot of films that wouldn’t normally get nominated (I’m looking at you Blind Side!) got nominated.

Now that I talked about my feelings on the Oscars a bit, let’s get to some of my predictions! I’m going to focus on the major categories, which are Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Director, and Best Picture. I also want to note, I have not seen all of the nominees in these categories, but I have followed the hype leading up to the Oscars, and the Oscars can be predicted by other award shows.

Best Actress Nominees:

Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side

Helen Mirren - The Last Station

Carey Mulligan - An Education

Gabourey Sidibe - Precious

Meryl Streep - Julia & Julia

Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep have already won the award, and repeating is tough unless you had a performance the academy can’t ignore. Of the other 3, Bullock is the woman to beat. Bullock won both the Screen Actor’s Guild Award and the Golden Globe for her performance in The Blind Side. Usually, winning both the SAG and GG means they are a lock for the Oscar.

 

Winner - Sandra Bullock

Best Actor Nominees:

Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart

George Clooney - Up in the Air

Colin Firth - A Single Man

Morgan Freeman - Invictus

Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

This award is fairly predictable, much like Best Actress this year is. Jeff Bridges, much like Bullock, has won both the SAG and GG for his role in Crazy Heart. The only real dark horse in this award could be Morgan Freeman. He has no Oscars, and the Academy could give him one of those dreaded make-up Oscars and deny Bridges. However, I don’t think this will happen given the SAG and GG results.

Winner - Jeff Bridges

 

Best Director Nominees:

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker

James Cameron - Avatar

Lee Daniels - Precious

Jason Reitman - Up in the Air

Quentin Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds

I’m a director guy, so this award is one I pay great attention to. I know fans of Tarantino hate hearing this, but this is a two-horse race between James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow. Cameron redefined effects once again with Avatar, so it is very possible Cameron will get the award. Especially given the recent love affair Cameron has with Hollywood. However, a woman has never won the Best Director Oscar. Cameron has won the award before. For that reason, I see history being made. Plus, she won the Director’s Guild of America Award. This is normally a good Oscars indicator.

Winner - Kathryn Bigelow

Best Picture Nominees:

Avatar

The Blind Side

District 9

An Education

The Hurt Locker

Inglorious Basterds

Precious

A Serious Man

Up

Up in the Air

To cut the list of potential winners down, look at the Best Director nominees. If your film doesn’t have a Best Director nomination, you are not winning Best Picture. So instantly we can cut The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, A Serious Man, and Up out of the running. They have no chance.

Up in the Air, to me, is this years Michael Clayton. It’s the film you know is good enough to be in the top 5, but has no chance to win. Same goes for Precious. There are 3 films to watch here. Avatar I can see winning cause it has that same fever Titanic had when it ran the table to 11 Oscar wins (unjustly as its Best Picture win was). Plus, Avatar won the Best Dramatic Picture Golden Globe. However, The Hurt Locker has a nominee for Best Actor, a likely winner for Best Director, and the most momentum seemingly heading into the Oscars. But, Inglorious Basterds can be a dark horse. Avatar and The Hurt Locker could split the voting, leading to an upset. Plus, it has Nazis. NAZIS! That is a secret weapon to winning Oscars! Plus, Christoph Waltz gives an outstanding performance that is likely to net him the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. This will be close, but I have to vote momentum.

Winner - The Hurt Locker

As for other awards, Avatar wins all technical awards it is up for, and likely wins the Oscar count. 

So there you have it, mark down my predictions! I recommend you mark down your own Oscars predictions, and tune in this Sunday to the show. I know I will be!

Update on Tue, March 2, 2010 by Eric Sopko

I did make a mistake, which someone corrected me on. Morgan Freeman did win an Oscar, but it was for Best Supporting Actor for Million Dollar Baby. I still think Freeman has an outside shot at the award just because he is well respected by the Oscar committee, and Freeman's Oscar is not nearly as prestigious as Best Actor is. However, I picked him to lose anyway, so him winning BSA doesn't effect my prediction.

Comments

[Tass]

The Hurt Locker? I dunno, it billed itself as a gritty, realistic portrayal of the Iraq war but it was just unbelievably ludicrous. I'm a soldier and there was no way the things in that movie could happen. At least Avatar (which I refuse to go see) and Basterds come right out and cop to being fantasy.

[Eric Sopko]

Before I continue with my reply, thank you for your service to our country :)

The Hurt Locker is not the film I think should win, let me clarify that. I am looking at how I think the awards will play out. The Hurt Locker has a lot of Oscars trends in its favor going into the show, and has only been gaining steam in recent weeks. I would have picked Avatar a few weeks ago, but recent hype has led me to change to The Hurt Locker winning. Though I can just as easily see Avatar walking away with the award.

I would probably side with either Inglorious Basterds, Up in the Air, or Up if I was going by what I felt was the best film of last year.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Morgan Freeman won an oscar for Million Dollar Baby.

[Eric Sopko]

I stand corrected, but that was for Best Supporting Actor. Not Best Actor. There is a chance he might get the Best Actor Oscar just because he is Morgan Freeman and the academy want him to have the more prestigious award.

But, I did overlook that in the article, and thank you for correcting me. It makes me feel better about my prediction of him losing, lol.