Avatar Will Blow Your Mind - As In Its Price-Tag
Mon, November 9, 2009 
If you’ve been following us at TMT and/or listening to the Movie Moan podcast, you know I’ve refused to jump on this “Avatar is going to change the way movies are made!” bandwagon. For anyone wanting to simply point to over-zealous fanboys as the source of these remarks, Cameron himself is guilty of making such claims.
A new report from The New York Times doesn’t paint the most positive of light towards Avatar’s box-office prospects. If these claims are to be believed, 20th Century Fox will have spent close to $500 million total on the film. Yes, that’s said to include production costs as well as the film’s marketing. You’ll also know that studios don’t lump in the cost of selling a movie with the money they spent to make the damn thing.
Said report also points to a $230 million production budget. That’s studio spin, at best. If a major tentpole like Spider-Man 3 or Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End cost $300 million (and minimum, no less), there’s no way in Hell Avatar cost under that price-tag. The most telling remark comes at the very end of the article where Fox purposely placed Alvin & the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel as their “secret weapon” opening merely a week after Avatar opens. If Cameron’s return to cinema is going to kick so much ass financially, then why place a high-profile family-friendly sequel the week after it? That says it all, folks.
I honestly think we’re going to see a repeat of King Kong next month. That is to say Jackson’s remake did solid business in theaters ($220 million domestic gross - $550 million worldwide). But it didn’t meet the kind of numbers everyone expected. That mixed with its pricey budget in addition to having its thunder stolen by The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe the week prior resulted in it being labeled as a box-office underperformer.
Truth be told, I’m having trouble seeing Avatar breaking $200 million in the states at this point. All I care about is if Cameron delivers another great movie. At this point, that's all everyone should hope for.
Reader Comments (3)
i am the biggest fan (based on the footage and info) of avatar.
but the more i am reading the more i have a feeling that it will be a bomb. i mean really a bomb. 200 millions is a lot of money. it is IMO. but if the budget is huge then it is a bomb right?
i mean 3 hours? hey you got me Cameorn. i am paying money for this. but the general public? the general public will watch a 3 hour movie about blue,skinny,tall aliens with yellow eyes? they will watch this movie for 3 months in IMAX( remember guys they have the imax for more then 2 months until Alice ) ???
really? i am not complaining. i am a huge scifi fan. i am a huge CGI fan and i am a huge blockbuster fan. this is like the perfect movie for me. but just because i like something i can not ignore the facts. 500 millions and 3 hours.
if this movie brakes records then Cameron will become the hollywood god. he he
ok 500 millions and 3 hours are not facts . my mistake
Hit the nail on the head. King Kong is a perfect comparison for Avatar, from depending on the director's name to late marketing to December release, to enormous budget, ect. Avatar is a complete wild card. The advertising and media attention will be defeaning by the week it opens, so was Kong's. I, personally, would be shocked by a sub 200 million gross, but equally shocked at something over 300. I would say 225-250 is 95% likely where it lands.