Movie Moan: Summer 2011 Prediction Power Hour
Sun, April 24, 2011 Place your bets!
This week's Movie Moan comes to you live from the Trump Taj Mahal in Atlantic City where we'll be putting everything on the line to make our predictions as to the smashes, bombs, sleepers and everything else in between at the box-office.
Which of the four comic-book superhero movies will make the biggest bank? Have audiences finally grown tired of Johnny Depp's Captain Jack Sparrow crap? How high will Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows – Part II reach? Is the general public as interested in Super 8 as us nerds are? How badly will Rise of the Planet of the Apes flop? And most important of all just how bloody likely would it be for Donald Trump to listen to Phil, Queen Kristina and Jamie?
You can download us as an MP3 below or watch us in video enhanced glory above. And just in case you want to skip a specific blockbuster prediction, here are the cliff notes:
Thor (May 6th) - 3:50 mins
Bridesmaids (May 13th) - 7:50 mins
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (May 20th) - 11:35 mins
The Hangover Part II (May 27th) - 17:35 mins
Kung Fu Panda 2: The Kaboom of Doom (May 27th) - 22:25 mins
X-Men: First Class (June 3rd) - 26:55 mins
Super 8 (June 10th) - 31 mins
Green Lantern (June 17th) - 35:10 mins
Bad Teacher (June 24th) - 38:50 mins
Cars 2 (June 24th) - 43 mins
Transformers: Dark of the Moon (July 1st) - 46:10 mins
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II (July 15th) - 51:40 mins
Captain America: The First Avenger (July 22nd) - 56:15 mins
Cowboys & Aliens (July 29th) - 60:15 mins
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (August 5th) - 64:50 mins
Reader Comments (13)
I just want to say fantastic show guys! Best in 2011 by far! Ok here are my 2011 summer boxoffice predictions. The real predictions:
Thor: $165 million
Bridesmaids: $95 million
Pirates 4: $115 million
Hangover Part II: $185 million
Kung Fu Panda 2: $315 million
X-men: First Class: $90 million
Super 8: $145 million
Green Lantern: $140 million
Bad Teacher: $35 million
Cars 2: $240 million
Transformshit 3(no that is not a typo): $295 million
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2: $385 million
Captain America: $215 million
Cowboys & Aliens: $125 million
Rise of the Planet of the Apes: $45 million
man o man I can't wait to come back to this after the summer is done
egg will meet face.
@A2THEH
Just bear in mind, you will now be included in the whole battle to the death thing in September. I hope you don't mind :)
@Jo
Well, by definition, two people on the team will be incorrect about each prediction. If you think we're wrong about any of them, by all means tell us the right answer.
@Phil Gee Count me in! I can't wait to laugh at Jamie when Cowboys & Aliens flops. :)
The 1 prediction I made that I'm not sure about is Super 8. It all depends how audiences react to the alien or creature that's in the train. I think they will be letdown but you never know. Remeber Cloverfield people!
I have to concur with everyone else and say this format is a massive improvement. Slicker and much more disciplined, but I am missing Lou's and Hocken's spontaneous wryness.
Thor: $220M (though that may change after I see it tommorrow)
Bridesmaids: $110M
Pirates 4: $180M
The Hangover Part II: $150M
Kung Fu Panda 2: $250
X-men: First Class: $120M
Super 8: I'm going out on a limb here, but I think it very well COULD take Inception numbers! $270-80M
Green Lantern: $90M
Bad Teacher: $60M
Cars 2: $240M
Transformers 3: $330M
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2: $300M
Captain America: $350M (the big one of the summer!)
Cowboys & Aliens: $175M
Rise of the Planet of the Apes: $105 worldwide... yes, dollars!
And someone get that rats nest off Trump's noggin!
Captain America as the biggest grosser of the summer?
I like the way Welshfilmbuff thinks.
Looking back at what I typed, I meant $250M for Kung-Fu Panda 2, not $250! I must have been thinking of the maximim for Apes.
I think what Kristina and Jamie mentioned about Captain America is very valid ; Americans will be brought in by the patriotism and everyone else will be attracted to the fact that he's an underdog... and there hasn't been enough of them in recent cinema.
It will take Iron Man money ; $580M-$600M worldwide.
"Thor getting bad reviews" WTH is that Rotten Tomatoes rating?! Sure it'll drop off a little, but c'mon folks. Play fair. I think Thor will do better world wide than domestic, but I think Thor will land between 190-200 domestic. I think Pirates prediction (Phils) is spot on.
X-Men First Class will also be okay Worldwide. I don't see it breaking 150 domestic....even if they HAD Hugh Jackman. The one sheets stink but the trailers are good. Bottom line though it is NOT what the audience really wants. They would rather have a follow up to Last Stand, if anything. Put I'll tell you what. When 'Wolverine' gets back up and running- that will be the measuring stick. It will be do or die time.
Hangover 2- I side with Jamie.
Pirates- Worldwide's fine. Domestic? No comment.
Panda- I didn't like Panda. Cars 2 is Pixar. Cars will make 250 domestic just by sneezing. 300+WW. It may not be the best, but it'll make hand over fist. The Smurfs film...
I still love Cameron Diaz. It's a comedy, but it is out of its league--and Bad Teacher is well named. What is Bmob spelled backwards. It'l make $10 dollars from the sucker who wants to see it. That's okay though. The Smurfs will be MORE of a turkey than this. Bigger budget, more of a letdown. It will win a few razzies I'm sure.
Transformers? 200 domestic, 300 WW
Potter? 280 domestic. 4-500 WW
Cap- very, very close to Iron Man numbers, just as Phil said. Besides, leads more into Avengers than Thor does at this time...
Super 8? Meh. Won't make a ton, but it will make a profit.. I'll go 110 domestic. About the same WW, give or take 20 mil.
Don't give a damn about Cowboys & Aliens. 150 million domestic. 230 WW.
Apes? Haven't seen too much about it. Tell ya this much. I felt more hype with Burton's film 10yrs ago. I actually loved that film for the most part.. How much did it make? This one will make 30 dollars. On VOD.
Seriously, it's an August flick, so I'll go 40-50 mil domestic unless it turns out great and then its 90-- 30 of it going to VOD.
By The Way
I want to go off the Taj Mahal slots.
Mr. Popper's Penguins= this will be the return of Jim Carrey as we loved him. I'm willing to gamble 150 domestic here, 300 WW.
Conan = I need to see more. Right now, I'll say 70 domestic tops, 150-200 WW. Number could change.
Final Destination 5= Thirty Dollars, VOD.
Great to hear from you again Darren.
We did share some thoughts on Conan (huge fan that I am) but they were cut for time. I'm afraid I believe it will suck, blow and flop. So few films of this genre make any money. So fewer are actually any good.
You guys are a tad tough on Thor. Think it will do better than expected.
Count me in for the Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes. If for nothing else but to wash the Burton version away.
if you insist my Gee
Thor: 220Dom/600ww
Bridesmaids (May 13th) - 220Dom/300ww
Pirates of the Caribbean: 330Dom/900ww
The Hangover Part II: 300Dom/550ww
Kung Fu Panda 2: 305Dom/750ww
X-Men: 230Dom/550ww
Super 8: 190Dom/450ww
Green Lantern: 220Dom/550ww
Bad Teacher: 60Dom/150ww
Cars 2: 290Dom/850ww
Transformers: 405Dom/900ww
Harry Potter: 360Dom/1.1biill-ww
Captain America: 230Dom/500ww
Cowboys & Aliens: 150Dom/450ww
Rise of the Planet of the Apes: 100Dom/350ww
hopefully I'm not too late, I just heard that you were involving we
My pathetic predictions:
Thor: 190
Bridesmaids (May 13th) - 80
Pirates of the Caribbean: 175
The Hangover Part II: 180
Kung Fu Panda 2: beats me but I'll say 220
X-Men: 150
Super 8: 125
Green Lantern: 230
Bad Teacher: 50
Cars 2: 200
Transformers: 275
Harry Potter: 385
Captain America: 260
Cowboys & Aliens: 200
Rise of the Planet of the Apes: 120 (probably foolish of me, but there you have it)
@Jo
Thanks for getting involved. We really appreciate it.
@ The Zodfather
There's nothing pathetic about putting your bets out there for the world to see (though Bridesmaids is going to better than that, trust us). Just think forward to September when we cash in those bets. If you're spot on about one, you'll get mentioned on air by me. That goes for everyone.