Watchmen Shoots Up The Friday Competition

Early estimates are starting to slowly weave their way through the highways of the interwebs and Watchmen seems to be a little bit behind many of the estimates which pegged a 70 Million + opening weekend. That being said it is still early and Watchmen still pulled in some significant box office penny. I'll let Steve Mason do the talking.

Watchmen has been spectacular at the box office all day long, and, after consulting with multiple sources, I am projecting a staggering $25.2M (that does include midnight previews) for Friday. That is approximately the 32nd-best opening day in modern box office history, but it is the all-time #12 opening day for a non-sequel.

ALL-TIME TOP 15 OPENING DAYS FOR A NON-SEQUEL

1. Spider-Man - $39.4M
2. Twilight - $35.9M
3. Iron Man - $35.2M
4. Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone - $32.3M
5. The Simpsons Movie - $30.7M
6. I Am Legend - $30M
7. The Da Vinci Code - $28.6M
8. 300 - $28.1M
9. Transformers - $27.8M
10. Sex & The City - $26.7M
11. The Passion of the Christ - $26.5M
12. Watchmen - $25.2M (projected)
13. Planet of the Apes - $24.6M
14. Hulk - $24.2M
15. The Day After Tomorrow - $23.5M

When the numbers get this big, and the movie is this front-loaded, 3-day projections are problematic, but I am going with $62.5M (my final prediction on published Wednesday was $63M). It is possible that the movie will manage a better “internal multiplier” and start inching closer to $70M, but I am at $62.5M for now. If the number holds, that would give Watchmen the all-time #4 opening weekend for an R-rated movie, trailing only Matrix Reloaded, Passion of the Christ (which had better source material contrary to what fanboys may believe) and Snyder’s 300.

I would imagine that if this film stays the course this weekend than WB should be pretty happy with a $62.5 million dollar opening weekend. It all depends on the drop, which is coming, but the question is how big?

Rope Of Silicon featured Steve Mason's story and provided a early estimates on the top ten of the weekend.

Mason estimates no other films will crack the $10 million mark for the weekend as Watchmen opened against no other major releases and Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail will be closest in the second spot with an estimated $8.62 million take for the weekend.

I have included the early Friday estimates below, Laremy will be here on Sunday with a complete wrap-up.

1. Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $25 million
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) - $2.43 million
3. Taken (Fox) - $2.21 million
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $2.05 million
5. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $1.3 million
6. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) - $1.27 million
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $995,000
8. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $865,000
9. Coraline (Focus) - $725,000
10. Fired Up (Sony) - $700,000