Movie Moan's Summer 2013 Box Office Prediction Power Hour(s)
Tue, April 9, 2013 If you can get past the song (and it's a big 'if') then you're guaranteed to have a lot of fun with this week's three hour epic show.
It's that time of the year again where the Movie Moan crew predict the US domestic grosses for Summer 2013's blockbuster movies before we re-unite in September to see how badly we did. Assembling for another epic battle are the usual trifecta of Phil Gee (who gets everything wrong), Jamie Williams (who gets half of everything right), and Mr Shawn Robbins of Box Office.com (who gets the other half right).
But raising the stakes this year is a fourth member of the predicting posse. None other than writer and editor for Coming Soon.net Mr Edward Douglas.
Now the important bit - Don't forget to have a pen and paper to hand as we go through the show so you can join in and make your own predictions. This year we'll have a 'web winner' for each prediction and an overall winner for the listener who gets the most points. The stakes have never been higher.
All you have to do is lay out your predictions just as you see them below in the cliff notes, with the title of the film and your prediction on its US domestic gross up to our cut off date of September 1st:
10:25 mins - Iron Man 3
21:30 mins - The Great Gatsby
27:55 mins - Star Trek Into Darkness
36:45 mins - The Hangover Part III
45:40 mins - Fast & Furious 6
57:20 mins - After Earth
66:50 mins - Man Of Steel
86:10 mins - Monsters University
96:30 mins - World War Z
107 mins - White House Down
116 mins - Despicable Me 2
125 mins - The Lone Ranger
132:35 mins - Pacific Rim
141:55 mins - Red 2
146:55 mins - The Wolverine
155:40 mins - Elysium (yes, the trailer just hit right after I finished making this video - bloody perfect timing)
164:30 mins - Kick Ass 2
Best of luck to you all.
Download the audio only MP3 version right here:
Reader Comments (24)
The MP3 link leads to an error message.
Folks, the link should work if you're using Internet Explorer. It's not working on Firefox for some reason that I can't figure out.
Another great prediction show, guys. I look forward to the Man of Steel discussion and overall Superman celebration that is to come.
Phil,
Great comments on both Roger Ebert's passing and the legacy of Siskel & Ebert in general. I remember staying up to see the show when I was younger or sometimes catching the (I guess re-runs? New time slot? I don't really remember) on Sunday afternoons. They defined what movie critics are for me and will always be part of the world of movies to me, even in their absence.
My first time predicting with you fine people!
All amounts in millions, obviously.
Iron Man 3 - $350
The Great Gatsby - $64
Star Trek Into Darkness - $300
The Hangover Part III - $158
Fast & Furious 6 - $237
After Earth - $98
Man Of Steel - $295
Monsters University - $246
World War Z - $92
White House Down - $139
Despicable Me 2 - $283
The Lone Ranger - $111
Pacific Rim - $165
Red 2 - $74
The Wolverine - $147
Elysium - $81
Kick Ass 2 - $40
I'm in!
Iron Man 3 --- $325 m
Gatsby -- $55 m
Star Trek -- $270 m
Hangover 3 -- $175 m
Fast & Furious 6 -- $220 m
After Earth -- $135 m
Man of Steel -- $265 m
Monsters U -- $250 m
World War Z -- $135 m
White House Down -- $150 m
Despicable Me 2 -- $280 m
The Lone Ranger -- $120 m
Pacific Rim -- $95 m
RED 2 -- $75 m
The Wolverine -- $165 m
Elysium -- $90 m
Kick Ass 2 -- $38 m
Iron Man 3 --- $360 m
Gatsby -- $ 70m
Star Trek -- $275 m
Hangover 3 -- $200 m
Fast & Furious 6 -- $250 m
After Earth -- $150 m
Man of Steel -- $255 m
Monsters U -- $290 m
World War Z -- $80 m
White House Down -- $125 m
Despicable Me 2 -- $370 m
The Lone Ranger -- $110 m
Pacific Rim -- $140 m
RED 2 -- $100 m
The Wolverine -- $150 m
Elysium -- $120 m
Kick Ass 2 -- $45 m
Here We Go!
Iron Man 3: $390 million
The Great Gatsby: $65 million
Star Trek Into Darkness: $325 million
The Hangover Part 3: $190 million
Fast & Furious 6: $245 million
After Earth: $145 million
Man of Steel: $195 million
Monsters University: $205 million
World War Z: $100 million
White House Down: $155 million
Despicable Me 2: $320 million
The Lone Ranger: $130 million
Pacific Rim: $175 million
Red 2: $70 million
The Wolverine: $145 million
Elysium: $80 million
Kick Ass 2: $35 million
HAHAHA Phil. The opening song is a riot.
In all due respect to the Movie Moan gang and the viewers but you guys are over predicting Man of Steel. What did people think of the last Superman movie? Which was Superman Returns. People hated it. So makes you guys think it will be a big hit? It's also an origin story which will hurt it. Especially after 10 years of Smallville. It could be a very good movie but I don't think that will make a huge difference. Just my thoughts.
I would include my extensive notes I took the first time I listened to this (last night! at midnight!) but I don't have time and neither do you, so:
Iron Man: (I agree with Jamie that there will be no post-Avengers bump, Avengers was an anomaly because all the superheroes were together in that movie whereas this will only appeal to IM fans) - $330 million
Great Gatsby: (loved the book in high school and I wonder if it could pull a Life of Pi if it's a good movie): $70 million
Star Trek Into Darkness (no idea, don't really care, didn't like the first movie and JJ Abrams is an overrated douchehack): $245 million
The Hangover: $140 million
Fast and Furious 6: $180 million
After Earth: (Will Smith is still the only real legitimate box office draw in Hollywood now because, well, he also brings in the urban audiences) $170 million
Man of Steel: (no idea whatsover) $250 million
Monsters U: (no real idea again, I did love the first movie but it's been so long since it came out, OTOH the latest trailer is great) $270 million
World War Z: (terrible trailer) $70 million
White House Down: (no idea, don't care) $150 million
Despicable Me: (I lied, I will include my full notes but just for this movie only, first off, Phil, PLEASE SEE THE FIRST MOVIE. And also Rise of the Guardians which was a good movie and maligned wrongfully. See them both. Anyhoo, my parents who normally avoid animated movies loved the first movie which to me is the real acid test of when an animated movie works. And this is the ONLY movie this summer I will definitely see in theaters other than Wolverine, unlike everything else I'll catch on dvd or never watch) $350 million
The Lone Ranger: (I hate to say it but I don't think it looks as bad as you all, I do think it'll do okay and not bomb outright) $110 million
Pacific Rim: (no idea but I can see the Transformers fans rushing out to see it) $230 million
Red 2: (I guess I'm the only person who loved the first movie and hated Avengers...kill me after I'm done predicting, okay?) $140 million
The Wolverine: (to me this looks spades better than the horrible abortion that was the first Wolverine movie, I'm definitely down for this one) $210 million
Elysium: (I'm too lazy to look up the trailer, what is this even about because I fell asleep during your talk about it last night, it was past 2 a.m. at that point) $160 million
Kick Ass 2: (er, I didn't see the first movie but I think this looks kind of fun though I still won't see it) $75 million
Before I sign off, Phil, what is the song that you were singing to in the opening? The real song I mean, the song that you used the music from? Or did you make up that music because it's really nice. And we know you can sing better than that!
Sorry for spamming but I'd like to change my Despicable Me 2 prediction to $300 million and my Lone Ranger prediction to $85 million.
This is truly off the top of my head. I haven't even finished listening to the show yet, let alone had time to do research; nevertheless, I didn't want to miss out on participating in this contest like I did last time. Thanks.
Iron Man 3 - $325 million
The Great Gatsby - $65 million
Star Trek Into Darkness - $275 million
The Hangover Part III - $225 million
Fast & Furious 6 - $250 million
After Earth - $115 million
Man Of Steel - $305 million
Monsters University - $185 million
World War Z - $85 million
White House Down - $170 million
Despicable Me 2 - $255 million
The Lone Ranger - $110 million
Pacific Rim - $170 million
Red 2 - $85 million
The Wolverine - $105 million
Elysium - $90 million
Kick Ass 2 - $50 million
@Shelly
The song is 'Against The Ninja' by the band Dragon Sound, from the soundtrack to the film 'Miami Connection'. I was lucky enough to get the soundtrack which comes with a kareoke version which I could attempt to sing falsetto to.
Thanks, Phil!
By the way, did you ever get around to seeing How To Train Your Dragon? I remember you mentioning that was another movie you never got around to seeing.
Awesome Podcast
Iron Man 3 - $385m
The Great Gatsby - $85m
Star Trek Into Darkness - $315m
The Hangover Part III - $180m
Fast & Furious 6 - $250m
After Earth - $120m
Man Of Steel - $270m
Monsters University - $250m
World War Z - $70m
White House Down - $120m
Despicable Me 2 - $260m
The Lone Ranger - $100m
Pacific Rim - $155m
Red 2 - $70m
The Wolverine - $160m
Elysium - $120m
Kick Ass 2 - $40m
Alright then.
Iron Man 3 - $375M
The Great Gatsby - $75M
Star Trek Into Darkness - $310M
The Hangover Part III - $185M
Fast & Furious 6 - $235M
After Earth - $130M
Man Of Steel - $295M
Monsters University - $225M
World War Z - $70M
White House Down - $140M
Despicable Me 2 - $305M
The Lone Ranger - $110M
Pacific Rim - $195M
Red 2 - $60M
The Wolverine - $150M
Elysium - $155M
Kick Ass 2 - $45M
@Shelly
Yes I did get around to seeing that (Kristina insisted). I thought it was delightful. It had a grand scope coupled with a really credible, intimate story about a dysfunctional relationship between a father and son.
I was also really surprised with the way they portrayed Toothless. A lesser film would have put him in the mould of a cute dog with a big shit eating grin on his face right from the start. But Toothless had a real ambiguity when you first meet him. He's dangerous, he's angry, he may just kill Hiccup. He's a real character that you have to take time to understand.
Thank you to everyone for taking the time to watch a three hour show (I know Blip can be a pain to load) and make your predictions.
Some of you may want to revise your numbers on 'Man Of Steel' after that new trailer but we'll see how it goes.
I'm glad you enjoyed it, Phil, it was a great movie. Now I'm insisting that you see Despicable Me and also Rise of the Guardians. Enough of this "the CGI looks bad" nonsense, it was a very good and enjoyable movie and I insist you all see it before you say another bad word about it! End of rant. :)
@Phil
The moment I finished watching the new MAN OF STEEL trailer for the first time, I thought to myself, "This could absolutely take the summer." My prediction of 295m is looking unbelievably low-ball, but I'll stick with it; you guys on the show don't get to change your minds, so I won't either. I can live with being wrong as long as the movie is as terrific as the trailer makes it look!
Were that trailer released before the record, yes my prediction would have been higher. Albeit still reserved. More like $325M instead of $300M.
Finally got a chance to listen to this, figured I'd listen before adding my numbers.
First my Rhetoric
-IM3 - Avengers helped but fatigue still exists, and unlike in the past, the following summer films aren't gonna bomb.
-AE - Any other lead and this would struggle to make 60, with Will, who knows.This is the Green Lantern of the summer.
-ManOfSteel - Just like with avengers, everyone is going to feel stupid for not seeing this coming. Word of mouth is a mysterious thing, and nolan films love it.
-WWZ - The movie all critics will pick on, even over M. Night.
-WhiteHouse - If this came out a year and a half ago, we'd all see it for the spoof it is. But the internet and the world has changed their mind on these two leads for some strange reason.
-LoneRanger - People didn't like pirates either till Depp/Gore/Bruck made them. This looks like pirates, right down to the cursed faced bad guys, the handsome hero and the two left feet depp. The critical difference is that Depp isn't playing odd cool but rather odd silly. Just imagine this film was released in 2005. Many would have said the same if not worse about pirates.
-PacificRim - All Robot movies not made by Bay, are destined to under perform. If only this was Abrams.
-Wolverine - Good release date, coming off of a strong Xmen film and good word of mouth and this film will out do Origins.
-Elysium - Original concept films will only make money once you pull a nolan/whedon and become a star off of a big property(should look into halo).
-Kick Ass - Kind of unfair to cut it's tally short. Also Fox is selling it wrong yet again.
IM3 - 340
Gatsby - 72
Trek - 275
Hangover - 185
Fast6 - 260
AE - 130
ManOfSteel - 360
Monsters - 255
WWZ - 80
WhiteHouse - 150
Dispicable - 290
Lone - 220
Pacific - 178
Red - 110
Wolverine - 170
Elysium - 165
Kick Ass - 56
My big prediction is that that the Superman film will out do the Ironman film and that will be the big discussion this year.
Don't know if I'm too late but I'll predict anyway.
Iron Man 3-375mil
The Great Gatsby-65mil
Star Trek 2-325mil
The Hangover 3-160mil
Fast and Furious 6-215mil
After Earth-150mil
Man of Steel-260mil
Monsters University-240mil
World War Z-105mil
White House Down-145mil
Despicable Me 2 270mil
Lone Ranger-110mil
Pacific Rim-135mil
Red 2-77mil
Wolverine 2-146mil
Elysium-85mil
KickAss 2-36mil
Iron Man 3 - $380M
The Great Gatsby - $85M
Star Trek Into Darkness - $265M
The Hangover Part III - $180M
Fast & Furious 6 - $225M
After Earth - $140M
Man Of Steel - $280M
Monsters University - $260M
World War Z - $80M
White House Down - $140M
Despicable Me 2 - $300M
The Lone Ranger - $100M
Pacific Rim - $145M
Red 2 - $90M
The Wolverine - $155M
Elysium - $95M
Kick Ass 2 - $40M