Movie Moan - The Winter 2012 Predictions Power Hour (Or Two)
Tue, October 9, 2012 As promised a few weeks ago, Phil, Jamie, and the master of predictions Mr. Shawn Robbins of BoxOffice.com have returned to do battle once more in an epic show which we are proud to present in our classic Movie Moan format of full-on video enhanced glory.
I'm sure you folks know the drill by now (and I explain it all again in the show anyhow). We've cast our eyes at 15 of this Winter's biggest film releases, covering November and December, and will each make our prediction on each film's US domestic gross. For some reason, Phil thought this would be a tighter show than the summer version; fat chance of that.
So don't forget to join in too. Leave your predictions in the comments section below and if you could present it in a nice little list like the one you see below it would be a big help to me when collating the results for February's follow up. If you want to skip to a specific prediction then here are the cliff notes:
5:10 mins - Wreck It Ralph
14:35 mins - Flight
21:40 mins - Skyfall
36:10 mins - Lincoln
46:25 mins - The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part II
56:15 mins - Rise Of The Guardians
64:50 mins - Life Of Pi
71:10 mins - Red Dawn
75:15 mins - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
92:40 mins - Monsters Inc. 3D
97:55 mins - Zero Dark Thirty
101:10 mins - Jack Reacher
106:40 mins - This Is 40
107:20 mins - Django Unchained
112:50 mins - Les Miserables
NOTE: Shawn is so deseperate to win on his crazy Hobbit prediction that he emailed me after we recorded to qualify his answer further. So here it is:
"The Hobbit goes as Howard Shore goes. I'm a believer in strong musical scores either carrying an otherwise mediocre movie and/or elevating a great movie to an even higher status. Without him, as great as LOTR is, it would lose a lot... and I think a similar principle applies for the Hobbit movies. He's the John Williams to this franchise's Star Wars. The question is how strong his new score will be."
Download the audio only MP3 version right here:
Movie Moan - The Winter 2012 Prediction Power Hour (Or Two) - audio version
Reader Comments (10)
Quick question before I get to my prediction thoughts: is Kristina not participating in this one? I'm guessing she had Skype problems again, but couldn't she submit her predictions by email, or did she/you all decide to have her sit this one out?
Basically, I'm around the same ballparks as you all except for a handful of movies which I think are being grossly under or overestimated:
1. Wreck It Ralph/Rise of the Guardians - I'm addressing them both simultaneously because I so feel like the former is being vastly overrated while the latter underrated. Maybe it's just my personal preference (though I don't think so) but I think Ralph's premise is too much Ratatouille and Up; in other words, its premise is too mature/grown up for the child and tween demographic. It screams more like a Pixar movie idea to me and not that that's bad since Pixar movies do well, but the plot sounds like it's not going to appeal to young kids. The trailer doesn't look to me like it would draw in that demographic. As for the nostalgia factor of seeing the old-time video game characters, really, who's going to care about that except the generations old enough to remember them? Tweens, teens, and college and high school kids won't care about that. Compare that to Rise of the Guardians which I personally thought delivered a much more interesting, exciting, and relatable trailer for a wide-range audience. However hokey the premise sounds on paper, it looks like a fun action movie with 'known' characters. They don't care about how bad the animation looks (unless it's truly stick-figure bad) and they certainly don't care about the nuances of the characters worrying about how they want to be heroes vs. villains. I think both movies will do at least respectable numbers but Ralph will do much less than you think and Guardians more than you think because Ralph is really more for the adults and Guardians more for the kids.
2. Life of Pi - I'm a librarian and I'm pretty certain I've heard that not only was this book a very popular bestseller (it was a pretty enjoyable book though one hard to translate as a film, I'll admit) but also a very important factor you may not have thought of is this book is on the reading list for many schools. You wouldn't think it's important but it is for box office because teachers could take their classes to see this as a field trip. They did for the Hunger Games. Not that I think this'll be as big as HG but you get my point. As for them cutting Tobey Maguire, that's completely of no consequence either way. Tobey is not a box office draw, Spiderman or no Spiderman, and most of the people who see this will be fans of the book and couldn't care less who plays the journalist. I don't think this movie will be gigantic but no way do I think it will do as bad as you're all predicting (don't believe me, at least pick up the book at your local library and give it a read). I'd say it would do at least 75 million no matter what time of year this is released.
3. The Hobbit - I'm a little surprised you had so much controversy predicting this! I would've thought it's the easiest one out of all of them because the LOTR movies were pretty consistent in their performance. I would just take the highest-grossing LOTR movie and add $20-30million to it for ticket inflation/IMAX/3D and get to about, yes, $400m-ish (in other words, yes I agree with Shawn that this will do huge and I don't even like Tolkien!) It's actually very simple because whether you love or hate Peter Jackson, the LOTR audience is very loyal and if they showed up for LOTR, they'll show up for this though I do think by Hobbit #3, there could be some audience fatigue. Otherwise I see no reason why this won't at least match LOTR's numbers if not exceed them. $500m does sound like a pipe dream though.
4. Twilight - I think it's being underpredicted and I loathe this franchise. But it is the finale, and fans who like both Hunger Games and Twilight will want something that tides them over till Catching Fire, and not that this has anything to do with the movie's merits but I'm surprised you didn't mention the Stewart cheating scandal and how/if this could affect the film's box office or not. Also, I don't think you can waive it off by saying fans have moved on to Hunger Games because there are fans who like one or the other, like the fans who like Twilight but don't care for Hunger Games, who will go to see this. I would think it being the finale itself might be enough to get it to $300m at least, maybe even a bit more.
As an aside, I agree and disagree with Shawn and Jamie about Lincoln, that they released it at a bad time is what I agree with. What I disagree with is whether there's a good time to release this movie at all. Spielberg makes 2 types of movies it seems: the outright crowd-pleasing blockbuster action movie (Jaws/ET/Jurassic Park) that scores box office wise, and the thinking/intellectual Oscar bait type movies that no one really wants to see. Lincoln is the latter, not the former and I think it looks too dreary and serious for anyone to want to see it at any time of the year except the Lincoln die-hards. I do agree with your predictions range on this one though. Honestly the only reason I think they even released this is because they want the Best Picture Oscar and not because they care about the box office all that much.
I'll jump into the fray with my foolish, scattershot picks.
Wreck-It Ralph: $170m
Flight - $72m
Skyfall - $180m
Lincoln - $94m
Twilight: BD 2: $240m
Rise of the Guardians: $82m
Life of Pi - $60m
Red Dawn: $26m
The Hobbit: First Strike: $270m (I'm gonna eat it on this one, probably, but I think the Jackson Fatigue is a factor)
Monsters Inc 3-D: $40m
Zero Dark Thirty: $30m
Jack Reacher: $105m
This is 40: $35m
Django Unchained: $78m
Les Miz: $142m
I look forward to getting laughed at in February.
@ Shelly
The Skype problems for Kristina have become so frequent that she has made the descision to leave the show until a time when it won't be a problem anymore. We completely understand where she's coming from but it is a damn shame and we're very sorry we can't bring her to you every week now.
@ Ratty
You won't be laughed at. I won't have it. You think Hobbit is going to do worse than me.
Thanks for clearing that up, Phil. If I may, here's a suggestion: have you guys considered switching to the Google Talk chat app instead? I haven't used it but my cousin swears by it (she lives in the Middle East and says she has no problems talking to anyone across the globe).
@Ratty, I liked your predictions but I still say both Hobbit and Twilight have been hugely underestimated, particularly Hobbit. One thing you must remember about Tolkien's works is that they have had a solid fanbase for many generations now and they're not just a passing fad. No matter how many years it's been and despite the mainstream public's opinions of Peter Jackson, they trust Peter Jackson to do Middle Earth justice and I don't think they're not showing up, at least for the first film. Unless the movie turns out to be really bad (doubtful) and gets a huge opening but big dropoff (doubtful), it's very unlikely it'll do sub-$300 million IMO.
Hey guys! Great podcast and a special tip of the hat to you Phil for the phenomenal editing job you did putting this 2 hour behemoth to work.
I'm lousy at BO predictions but am entertained listening to you chaps talking about them. Just by looking at the time stamps it is easy to see where passions - for and against - lie.
One note about Life of Pi - I have read the book - and that trailer is soooooooooo misleading! If you think Pi is a fantasy through and through - it is far from that. I can't blame the creative forces behind the movie because the fantasy aspects of the book are the sexiest to display. But take heed - a large part of the story - at least in the book - occurs in fairly normal and pedestrian settings.
A word of warning to all unfamiliar with the book.
Yeah, @shelly, I might get seriously curb-stomped on some of these predictions. Just throwing darts to see what sticks.
@Ratty, well, that's pretty much how box office predicting works anyway so you're doing the right thing.
My apologies for spamming but since that there hasn't been much of a comment guessing response, at least not yet, I am going to throw my hat in the ring and predict all of them just to make the online guessing part of the results show more interesting.
Wreck It Ralph - $167m
Flight - $90m (trailer looks pretty interesting, plus I wonder if it'll make people think of the Captain Sully story and up the curiosity factor a bit)
Skyfall - $180m
Lincoln - $45m
Twi-whatever - $310m
Rise of the Guardians - $125m
Life of Pi - $75m
Red Dawn - $36m (someone's going to see it, even if it's just the casts' friends/family and the Hemsworth and Hutcherson fangirls so I wouldn't underestimate this that much)
Hobbit - $360m (Phil and Jamie's repeated insistence have talked me down from the $400m ledge but I still say this will not do less than $340m)
Monsters - $22m
Zero Dark Thirty - $35m
Jack Reacher - $80m
This is a pointless sequel but we're glad Katherine Heigl isn't in it to badmouth it later - $47m
Django Unchained - $70m
Les Miserables - $93m, great trailer and Oscar buzz aside, because period movie musicals don't do as well (Phantom, Rock of Ages, Johnny Depp's barber movie) but more modern-era day musicals often break this rule and do pretty well (Hairspray, Mamma Mia)
Ok, here I go.
Wreck It Ralph: $225M
Flight: $85M
Skyfall: $215M
Lincoln: $60M
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part II: $310M
Rise Of The Guardians: $110M
Life Of Pi: $125M….yeaaahhh… I might be WAY off on this one, but it doesn’t seem to be getting buried like Hugo (see how many screens the movie opened…hard to believe it was all the push $175M 3D, Oscar-frendly family movie got), plus it’s got 2 weeks of nothing to play before The Hobbit opens (that could help Rise of the Guardians too). Add that to a movie that is apparently great, and you have a potential hit.
Red Dawn: $30M
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey: $410M….With 10 years of inflation, 3D and IMAX not to mention the hype, 400 is the new 300. And remember, WE may have written off the movie, but everyone else who isn’t in the know (i.e: 99% of the world) hasn’t.
Monsters Inc. 3D: $40M
Zero Dark Thirty: $45M
Jack Reacher: $70M
This Is 40: $35M…I also wouldn’t be surprised if it got moved up to Dec. 7, or at least that is what they should be doing. I mean what do you prefer...having Django, Les Mis and The Guilt Trip sucking out all your of your target audience, or going mano-a-mano with the latest Gerard Butler bland-fest?
Django Unchained: $85M
Les Miserables: $135M
And one last thing, too bad you didn’t put The Guilt Trip on the predictions, cause I think it could make a lot of money. I mean, the movie might be crap, but hey… remember Little Fockers?
lol every year during the results show I wonder how Phill ends up being so consistently off...I'm kidding buddy, Again some of your guess seems more like film reviews or even pipe dreams than objective numbers. The audience just doesn't work that way, more over, like with Expendables or Prometheus or Snow White, the final films can and probably will be something very different than you are "hoping" (I dread you Skyfall review).
Wreck It Ralph - $240
Flight - $65
Skyfall - $185
Lincoln - $52
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part II - $317
Rise Of The Guardians - $198
Life Of Pi - $34
Red Dawn - $35
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - $321
Monsters Inc. 3D - ugh $30 i guess.
Zero Dark Thirty - $40
Jack Reacher - $58
This Is 40 - $67
Django Unchained - $88
Les Miserables - $150
-A few comments here.
-Just because nordling loves Ralph with it's game commentary and AA meeting doesn't mean dick all about Oscar season. That just means we're treading Scott Pilgrim levels of fan boy appeal. Brave "looked" more oscar than Ralph. Time will tell. I'm putting Ralph somewhere between Incredibles and Monsters inc with a 3D boost.
-Lincoln looks great, but the movie audience isn't about this sort of thing. Not really.
-Denzel averages around 60mill and edges higher with the promise of action and a hot co star, Zemeckis used to have live action buzz, but that was a long time ago.
-If Les Mis plays it's cards right, it will ride Titanics early year wave of buzz and crowd pleasing. With bigger star power than the former too.
-When's the last time an Epic Finale made the least of a tight knit series? Twilight fans are going to deliver.
-Bond is getting alot of buzz here and there and it helps that it doesn't have any real summer competition at this point, but here's the cold truth; A bond film can only do so well. They're too silly for the Tinker Spy crowd and too snobby for the dumb crowd. Moreover, if this was the sequel to Royale it would be a diff story but just like TF3, TF2 hurt it's chances of really making a killing.
-Dreamworks has a habit of making really unappealing looking films, but just like Dragon, they sometimes really really deliver in the story and execution. With Del toro attached and the seasonal awareness, (released a month before christmas as Jaime said), all it needs is word of mouth and you'll all be looking like fools for not seeing it coming. I see Monsters vs Aliens with different appeal but a huge season boost.
-Jack Reacher, No one's heard of this movie, I see Drive numbers but with a Tom cruise boost minus the hipsters.
-Django Unchained, Quint is as big as he's ever been, and this time he's got some interesting stars with him. Shame it wasn't Will Smith though.
-This is 40 Apatow rarely directors his own work, but when he does it's one of the more successful ones.
-Zero Dark = Hurt locker x2. Would be more but it's got a clone to deal with.
-The Hobbit will make LOTR money. Let's be honest. By the time word of mouth hurts it, it will be sequel time. Moreover inflation and 3D will give it a boost. I see TF3 numbers but with no closure.
Wow, do I have some egg on my face for some of my predictions, haha! Especially Lincoln, way misjudged that one (and most likely Hobbit too). Well, at least I'll be more right about Red Dawn and Life of Pi, not that anyone really cares about either of those movies.
Les Mis is getting mixed reviews so I wonder if I overdid that one, too. Hmm...